A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."